Raghu Murtugudde
UMCP-ESSIC/The Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Science
ABSTRACT
As the impacts of climate change manifest themselves in all components of the Earth System, producing usable information for Joe, the plumber, on the environment, agro-economics, human health, energy and water resources, etc., from days to seasons become as crucial as providing decadal information for policy makers and managers as well as superusers such as transportation, energy, insurance, and other industries. While the national weather service focuses on the physical system out to 8-10 days and national centers focus on global warming projections, the subseasonal to decadal window remains wide open. A prototype regional downscaling system has been developed for Chesapeake Bay Watershed to produce high resolution atmospheric, watershed, and estuarine forecasts which are presently limited to 16-days due to a lack of boundary information from NCEP GENS for longer periods. Experimental seasonal forecasts are made from NASA GMAO forecasts and IRI seasonal forecasts. Linked products include land use scenarios and the impacts on the Bay, Dissolved Oxygen, HABs (Karlodinum, Microcystis, pseudo-nitzschia), Striped Bass, pathogens such as vibrio cholerae, vibrio vulnificus, and vibrio parahaemolyticus. Statistical downscaling is being developed to go from Km scale to meter scale environmental information combined with pollution/pathogen/allergen data to produce personalized, pre-emptive, and predictive health information. Standard suites of products also include waves and inundation with DEMs to track street-level flooding to navigate emergency workers and police. The concept is developed to make the system modular so that it can easily be transplanted to any part of the US or the world.